It’s finally rolling from 2019 to 2020 (a real ‘vision’ year, hardee har), so there have already been a plethora of ‘end of the decade’ type articles being thrown out there. They’re the ‘Best of…’ and ‘Worst of…’ lists, of course, plus the usual year in review critiques for 2019. Interestingly, it seems most people thought 2019 really stank and are hoping it gets lost to history. My bet is that it’s mostly related to all the crappy things that our leaders in the federal government pulled off, which are way too numerous to go into.
I looked back and re-read a blog entry I made in January 2010 about ‘A Decade of Tech’ to get a little perspective about what I think has changed or stayed the same over these past ten years. The main things I listed then were: the DVR, BitTorrent, High speed internet, Smartphones, GPS, and MP3 players. I would say that all of these (except the MP3 player of course, and who uses a DVR anymore?) have become pretty ubiquitous and ingrained in our lives and we just don’t really ‘think’ about them anymore. We take our phones and high speed internet for granted now. So my next list for what was big over this past decade kind of feels like an iteration of a subset from 2010, starting with…
Smartphones
We are actually already now in the period of time when we just refer to them as just phones… no one just casually says ‘cell phone’ in normal conversation really anymore. Blackberries are gone, and only the few remaining Luddite hold-outs still carry a flip-phone or other style of ‘dumb’ phone. In 2010 35% of Americans had a smartphone (which was mostly the iPhone I’m sure, even being only a few years old at the time), and the Android species of that era were still fairly spartan compared to the iPhone. Windows Mobile phones were around then but would only last for a few more years (I nailed that prediction, for sure). Some are saying we’ve now hit ‘peak’ smartphone… they are about as big as they can functionally be to be hold-able in one hand, and also fit in our pants pockets. They have excellent cameras, lots of storage, and batteries that will last most people a full day without too much trouble. Phone makers are struggling now to find the next big thing, which for last year and at present is them trying to foist ‘folding phones’ on the public (oh puhleease). Virtually everyone has a phone (just saw the stats, it’s 81%), from the oldest to youngest, even down to grade-schoolers and younger. Premier phones are a lot more expensive these days and people are keeping their phones for multiple years. (In fact, I used to be a New Phone Every Year dude years ago, but my current phone –Samsung Galaxy S8+– has been good enough I’m into my third year with it!) We feel naked and vulnerable if we don’t have our phone on us or handily available. There are noticeable generational differences on phone usage, ranging from the 25 and younger set whose brains can barely function without their phones, to seniors who still see phones as mostly for phone calls or texting. I’m generalizing of course! It’s safe to say, no one can envision any future where we won’t each have a phone of some sort. And maybe instead of getting bigger they will miniaturize and become almost invisible! So why are we so attached to our phones? It’s all because…
Apps Rule All
Apple coined the phrase ‘there’s an app for that’ way back, and it was prophetic. We love our phones because they integrate into about every area of life, augmenting almost all of our daily activities. Cameras are the biggest feature and apps take full advantage of them. Smartphones are, well, smart because of their internet connection; I would bet only a tiny fraction of apps are left which do not need at least a little bit of a tether to a server out there… maybe not over cellular data but at least via wifi. Streaming apps and services are where it’s at. In 2010, streaming accounted for 7% of U.S. music market, compared to 80% today. Music (Spotify) and video (Netflix) are huge: in 2010, physical sales accounted for 52 percent of the US music market and digital sales 38 percent. Both are now down to a nine percent share. That’s why phone batteries can barely keep up, everyone uses their phone all day long! So between phone technology and the software that runs on them, I don’t think it’s wrong or a stretch to say that so far in this millennium, the smartphone is the number one invention. Ugh, well that makes it sound like the printing press or the gas engine in a car, maybe should just call it the number one technical development of this century. One other mention: sometimes we even use our phones to talk to other people… lol
Smartwatches
I gave up a regular watch years ago, maybe 2011? My phone kept perfect time, of course, and I almost always had it on me. Then fitness bands and fitness-oriented watches came out, and the Apple Watch also hit the scene and that was when smartwatches took off in earnest. I tried a Pebble watch and got hooked! Of course, the Apple watch is THE most popular (because of all the iPhone users) and they’re also not just for the fitness buffs. A plethora of other brands have been released that are mainly fitness-oriented, like Garmin, but most are just glorified Fitbits. The other variety of smartwatch runs the Google GearOS but it continues to flounder, and Samsung also has a few models to choose from (I used one for a while last year).
The main ‘feature’ for the smartwatches is notifications, and yes we’re getting lazy about just pulling out our phones, but it’s quite nice being able see at a quick glance if it’s important or not (also seems more polite when with company). And it’s SUPER convenient to screen an incoming call seeing how most calls are spam these days! Many people are tracking their steps and workouts via their watches so they’ve helped with people being overall bit more conscious of their health. The Apple watch also has ton of apps (imagine that) and integrates with music playback (wireless earbuds are also popular these days, especially Airpods… imagine that).
The main issue I find with all these watches is battery life. Apple watches I think have to be charged pretty much nightly, GearOS watches are a close second on that, and even the Samsung watch I had needed to be charged at least every other day. It’s a crappy experience to have your watch conk out mid-morning because you forgot to charge it…
Regardless though, the smartwatch is a sweet tech development in these recent years since they integrate with our phones, provide us with quick information, are relatively cheap enough for the average tech spender (or giftable), are easy to operate, and are a ‘drop-in’ replacement for an accessory everyone already had. Hopefully they will continue to upgrade in features, decrease in overall size, and learn to stretch out what little power they have in their super small batteries.
Online Gaming
I don’t game but enjoy watching the releases of new games and consoles and gear. Gaming drives many areas of computer tech, with GPUs, laptop design, virtual/augmented reality, and need for increasing wireless speeds and throughput. Professional gaming/E-sports is making and burning huge amounts of cash (Fortnite!). Besides video, I bet the second-most feature use for phones is gaming (gotta admit, a quick light game helps with all levels of boredom!). From the old Xbox Kinect to the imminent PS5, you can’t talk about computing without mentioning gaming.
I might mention a few other developments in the past decade:
Artificial Intelligence has really grown and is finding its way into niche areas like medical analysis, banking/insurance, data brokerages… basically anywhere there is a huge amount of data where patterns can be found. Nope, we are no closer to the Singularity and humans are quite safe. 🙂 Cloud computing/storage is also huge now and is in many ways tied to AI.
Robotics have become more advanced but are still incredibly niche, like AI, and some are pretty cool (looking at you, Atlas and Spot!). When will we get fresh robotic tech that’s affordable and for the average consumer? Doubtful it will be in the 2020’s.
Battery tech still basically sucks. Over time I’ve seen some interesting reports on energy storage research developments… but until my PHONE can go for days with normal usage on a single charge, just… (yawn)
That’s it for another decade. See ya in 2030!