Another Decade of Tech

It’s finally rolling from 2019 to 2020 (a real ‘vision’ year, hardee har), so there have already been a plethora of ‘end of the decade’ type articles being thrown out there.  They’re the ‘Best of…’ and ‘Worst of…’ lists, of course, plus the usual year in review critiques for 2019.  Interestingly, it seems most people thought 2019 really stank and are hoping it gets lost to history.  My bet is that it’s mostly related to all the crappy things that our leaders in the federal government pulled off, which are way too numerous to go into.

I looked back and re-read a blog entry I made in January 2010 about ‘A Decade of Tech’ to get a little perspective about what I think has changed or stayed the same over these past ten years.  The main things I listed then were: the DVR, BitTorrent, High speed internet, Smartphones, GPS, and MP3 players.  I would say that all of these (except the MP3 player of course, and who uses a DVR anymore?) have become pretty ubiquitous and ingrained in our lives and we just don’t really ‘think’ about them anymore.  We take our phones and high speed internet for granted now.  So my next list for what was big over this past decade kind of feels like an iteration of a subset from 2010, starting with…

Smartphones

We are actually already now in the period of time when we just refer to them as just phones… no one just casually says ‘cell phone’ in normal conversation really anymore.  Blackberries are gone, and only the few remaining Luddite hold-outs still carry a flip-phone or other style of ‘dumb’ phone.  In 2010 35% of Americans had a smartphone (which was mostly the iPhone I’m sure, even being only a few years old at the time), and the Android species of that era were still fairly spartan compared to the iPhone.  Windows Mobile phones were around then but would only last for a few more years (I nailed that prediction, for sure).  Some are saying we’ve now hit ‘peak’ smartphone… they are about as big as they can functionally be to be hold-able in one hand, and also fit in our pants pockets.  They have excellent cameras, lots of storage, and batteries that will last most people a full day without too much trouble.  Phone makers are struggling now to find the next big thing, which for last year and at present is them trying to foist ‘folding phones’ on the public (oh puhleease).  Virtually everyone has a phone (just saw the stats, it’s 81%), from the oldest to youngest, even down to grade-schoolers and younger.  Premier phones are a lot more expensive these days and people are keeping their phones for multiple years.  (In fact, I used to be a New Phone Every Year dude years ago, but my current phone –Samsung Galaxy S8+– has been good enough I’m into my third year with it!)  We feel naked and vulnerable if we don’t have our phone on us or handily available.  There are noticeable generational differences on phone usage, ranging from the 25 and younger set whose brains can barely function without their phones, to seniors who still see phones as mostly for phone calls or texting.  I’m generalizing of course!  It’s safe to say, no one can envision any future where we won’t each have a phone of some sort.  And maybe instead of getting bigger they will miniaturize and become almost invisible!  So why are we so attached to our phones?  It’s all because…

Apps Rule All

Apple coined the phrase ‘there’s an app for that’ way back, and it was prophetic.  We love our phones because they integrate into about every area of life, augmenting almost all of our daily activities.  Cameras are the biggest feature and apps take full advantage of them.  Smartphones are, well, smart because of their internet connection; I would bet only a tiny fraction of apps are left which do not need at least a little bit of a tether to a server out there… maybe not over cellular data but at least via wifi.  Streaming apps and services are where it’s at.  In 2010, streaming accounted for 7% of U.S. music market, compared to 80% today. Music (Spotify) and video (Netflix) are huge: in 2010, physical sales accounted for 52 percent of the US music market and digital sales 38 percent. Both are now down to a nine percent share. That’s why phone batteries can barely keep up, everyone uses their phone all day long!  So between phone technology and the software that runs on them, I don’t think it’s wrong or a stretch to say that so far in this millennium, the smartphone is the number one invention. Ugh, well that makes it sound like the printing press or the gas engine in a car, maybe should just call it the number one technical development of this century.  One other mention: sometimes we even use our phones to talk to other people… lol

Smartwatches

I gave up a regular watch years ago, maybe 2011?  My phone kept perfect time, of course, and I almost always had it on me.  Then fitness bands and fitness-oriented watches came out, and the Apple Watch also hit the scene and that was when smartwatches took off in earnest.  I tried a Pebble watch and got hooked!  Of course, the Apple watch is THE most popular (because of all the iPhone users) and they’re also not just for the fitness buffs.  A plethora of other brands have been released that are mainly fitness-oriented, like Garmin, but most are just glorified Fitbits.  The other variety of smartwatch runs the Google GearOS but it continues to flounder, and Samsung also has a few models to choose from (I used one for a while last year).

The main ‘feature’ for the smartwatches is notifications, and yes we’re getting lazy about just pulling out our phones, but it’s quite nice being able see at a quick glance if it’s important or not (also seems more polite when with company).  And it’s SUPER convenient to screen an incoming call seeing how most calls are spam these days!  Many people are tracking their steps and workouts via their watches so they’ve helped with people being overall bit more conscious of their health.  The Apple watch also has ton of apps (imagine that) and integrates with music playback (wireless earbuds are also popular these days, especially Airpods… imagine that).

The main issue I find with all these watches is battery life.  Apple watches I think have to be charged pretty much nightly, GearOS watches are a close second on that, and even the Samsung watch I had needed to be charged at least every other day.  It’s a crappy experience to have your watch conk out mid-morning because you forgot to charge it…

Regardless though, the smartwatch is a sweet tech development in these recent years since they integrate with our phones, provide us with quick information, are relatively cheap enough for the average tech spender (or giftable), are easy to operate, and are a ‘drop-in’ replacement for an accessory everyone already had.  Hopefully they will continue to upgrade in features, decrease in overall size, and learn to stretch out what little power they have in their super small batteries.

Online Gaming

I don’t game but enjoy watching the releases of new games and consoles and gear.  Gaming drives many areas of computer tech, with GPUs, laptop design, virtual/augmented reality, and need for increasing wireless speeds and throughput.  Professional gaming/E-sports is making and burning huge amounts of cash (Fortnite!).  Besides video, I bet the second-most feature use for phones is gaming (gotta admit, a quick light game helps with all levels of boredom!).  From the old Xbox Kinect to the imminent PS5, you can’t talk about computing without mentioning gaming.


I might mention a few other developments in the past decade:

Artificial Intelligence has really grown and is finding its way into niche areas like medical analysis, banking/insurance, data brokerages… basically anywhere there is a huge amount of data where patterns can be found.  Nope, we are no closer to the Singularity and humans are quite safe. 🙂  Cloud computing/storage is also huge now and is in many ways tied to AI.

Robotics have become more advanced but are still incredibly niche, like AI, and some are pretty cool (looking at you, Atlas and Spot!).  When will we get fresh robotic tech that’s affordable and for the average consumer?  Doubtful it will be in the 2020’s.

Battery tech still basically sucks.  Over time I’ve seen some interesting reports on energy storage research developments… but until my PHONE can go for days with normal usage on a single charge, just… (yawn)


That’s it for another decade.  See ya in 2030!

Windows Phone is dead

So… that only took about seven years to crash and burn out.  Microsoft announced Windows Phone 7 in the fall of 2010 but they never had a chance against the iPhone or the Android vanguard.  It’s been interesting to watch the slow tank over the years and just a twinge painful because Nokia was involved and they used to make solid phones.  Sure, there were a couple or three flurries of news bites where MS would make some grand announcement, like when they released Windows Phone 8 and WP10, but there was generally no interest from NO body.  They were never a contender.

I used to be a MS basher, but to be truthful I changed my mind when Ballmer finally stepped down around the summer of 2014 and passed the CEO reins to Nadella, and I watched what happened with the company.  Ballmer leaving was a shot in the arm that MS needed and they were able to really get to work on new versions of Windows and other initiatives, even focusing on their software to run on their phone competitors (smart!).  I was interested in the platform enough that a couple years ago I bought a lower-end phone running WP7 so I could play around with it.  Even with the low phone specs, it ran well and I did enjoy seeing what it offered.  It’s true that one very big reason for the phone’s failure was always the lack of apps.

So I’ve softened my stance since 2010: it’s too bad that Windows Phone didn’t work out, only because competition is good for everyone involved.  I’m not saying this is true about their phone at all, but in the tech industries, the best does not always win out.  WP was classy and different.  MS is cutting the fat and culling the herd… looking back now it seems like it was just kind of a big experiment, anyway.

[https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/9/16446280/microsoft-finally-admits-windows-phone-is-dead]

Microsoft finally admits Windows Phone is dead

“In a series of tweets, Microsoft’s Joe Belfiore has revealed that the software giant is no longer developing new features or hardware for Windows 10 Mobile. While Windows Phone fans had hoped Microsoft would update the platform with new features, it’s now clear the operating system has been placed into servicing mode, with just bug fixes and security updates for existing users.”

Poor Windows Phone

Microsoft’s mobile answer to the iPhone and iOS continues to tank, just as I predicted back in 2010. Gartner’s latest report ([http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2017015]) tells the numbers: for 1Q12, Microsoft only has 1.9% of worldwide phone sales, and that’s even down from 2.6% back in 1Q11. I guess I might have been generous saying M$ could even get 5-10% market share. This past year has been their big coming out party with Nokia, and I’ll admit that they are making some really nice hardware; if anything would have given both of those companies a shot in the arm, that was it. We’ll give it another year or two and check in on them again. IF both or one or the other is even still in the mobile space by then…

WP7 is out

News flash!

[http://cwflyris.computerworld.com/t/7006554/133557294/343176/0/]

Lack of buzz on WP7 raises questions about sales
Windows Phone 7 smartphones have been on sale for more than three weeks in the U.S. and seem to be producing little buzz and only so-so sales.

And this is news because . . . ??

Windows Phone 7

So Microsoft has been announcing new phones running their new mobile OS Windows Phone 7. HTC is fully behind it and will have as many WP7 phones as they do Android. I’ve looked at the commercials and reviews of the OS, and my reaction is, “Meh.” What’s the point? It’s already 2010, the iPhone has been out like 3 1/2 years, and this is finally MS’s competitive mobile phone? Sure, the animation of the screen design looks a bit new and fresh, but there is absolutely nothing I’ve seen so far that would make me even think about switching from iPhone. If I were to jump platforms (and there’s no possibility of this, at the current time), it would be to Android. And not AT&T’s variety of Android, so this would be a bigger decision for me than just going to a new phone, it would also mean a carrier jump.

So I predict that the WP7 will be around for awhile but will never get more than 5 to 10% market share. MS, with their deep pockets, will push it for a time. But they’ll never be a worthy competitor.

A Decade of Tech

Around Christmas-time back in December and during our celebrating the beginning of 2010, I started thinking about the computery, gadgety, techy goodies that I so enjoy, that we didn’t have (or barely had) back at the beginning of year 2000. Since we have so much technology now that we take for granted, I wanted to make a note for posterity. The day will come when we can’t imagine our lives without these benefits, even as our memory fades of how we lived before they came along. Already I know I and my wife wonder how we got along without cell phones, not having the ability to “reach out and touch” anyone anywhere at any time. This has also been our family “decade” for having kids, and so I know for them the personal computer has been a constant all of their young lives. Will some of what I list below be in their oldest and fondest memories of electrical gadgetry?

Here’s my list of the best from the past 10 years:

Digital Video Recorder (DVR): I honestly can’t remember the last time I scheduled myself to watch a show live on TV. To me that would be a horrible waste of time to watch a one or two hour show, and be beholden to the time frame that some producer schmuck decided was best for his ratings for a show to air. To be stuck to watching little 7 or 8 minutes segments of a show around which I have to get something to eat, or get the kids ready for bed, or take a leak. That falls under my definition of retardity! TiVo really kicked off the DVR revolution, but being the cheapskate hacker I am, about five years ago I built my own dvr box out of an old PC with a nice TV adapter card (the only part I bought) running Linux. Such liberation! So many options! So many commercials to be skipped!! I could schedule a show to record while sitting at my desk at work. I could even schedule a whole season of shows to record automatically. The rise of the DVR marked the beginning of the end of broadcast television as we know it.

BitTorrent: While the DVR changed how and when I watched television, my method of acquiring shows has changed just as much. Along with the rise of the DVR is also the mainstream use of bittorrent. Yes, it can be used to download movies, music, and software illegally. I cast no stones. But for TV shows, it gets a bit murky for me. I could set up the DVR to record shows and watch them, skipping the commercials. I also could use BT to download shows to the DVR that have the commercials cropped out. The downloaded shows transfer to my laptop quite easily so that I’m even not attached to the TV itself. Let’s say that I choose what is most expedient.

High Speed Internet: And of course, what good would bitorrent be without fast internet access? Sure, we had high speed 10 years ago, but today it’s about 10 times faster and the price is not much more than it used to be back then. We also have better options, with cable and DSL offered to most homes close to town and satellite for the unfortunate county folks. The US still lags behind some of the Asian countries (Japan is getting 100Mb/s to the home?!?) but at least some of the phone companies like Verizon are stepping up and getting more fiber to the curb. It’s great to see the cable companies and the telcos fighting each other to give consumers more options. And it’s only been in these past few years that the “triple-plays” (internet, phone, television) have been worthy and affordable options.

Smartphones: This would have to be my personal, all-time favorite category from the past decade. In my view, the growth and acceptance of regular cell phones in the past 10 years, and now smartphones in these recent years, is what has really changed people at an integral level. By smartphones I refer to the class of phones that have PIM options, internet access and sometimes wifi, can download new software, and have full QWERTY keyboards (hard or soft). Cell phones are now so integrated into our lives, we think of them like electricity or water service in our homes. We feel naked and vulnerable if we leave home without them. They might cause cancer? We are more than willing to take the risk (besides, the smarties keep proving and disproving that fact… just like the detriments/benefits of coffee!). Most kids down to age five have them now; they’re ubiquitous. The jump from “dumb” phone to smartphone was complete in 2007 when Apple released the first iPhone. Simply said, this phone absolutely dominates the smartphone market at least here in the US and is spreading around the world. I have always been after “One Gadget To Rule Them All” and I think the iPhone fits that almost perfectly (given the level of technology we have today). Sure, there are many people who are content with a normal cell phone that lets them talk to people, and perhaps do a little texting. But the iPhone and Android and Windows Mobile phones give you access to so much more information… all only a few keystrokes away. Any time you need it.

Global Positioning Systems / GPS: Thanks you, tech gods, for giving me a device that means I never again have to ask for directions! =D Surely I jest, but this is a class of devices that is so practical and fun, I can’t imagine not having it. I got a portable Garmin GPS device four or five years ago and I still remember the fascination of taking it on a trip and being able to watch it record a track of every point along the way. It told us how far we’d gone and how far we had to go… and how long it would take to get there. It told me how soon and when to turn (or turn around!). It gave me POI along the way. It could mark exactly the tent site where we camped or the hotel where we stayed. We also quickly got into geocaching which is awesome for family togetherness, and one of our favorite things to do when we travel. It is also pretty cool, after getting back from a trip, to plug in the recorded tracks to Google maps and show exactly where we were. Again, the GPS is such a practical device, it’s hard to imagine not having it. Many vehicles have it built-in now, and the day will come when it is a standard option. Please come quickly…

MP3 players: Lastly, the humble digital music player. The first one I ever had was won at a tech demo from one of our company VARs. 256MB of digital goodness, baby! Of course, at an average of 4MB per MP3 file, it didn’t hold more than a few albums… but still! Music that was infinitely reproducable, would never degrade, which I had copies of on all my computers, and could now carry in my pocket. I could listen to my music at home, at work, on a plane, in the van. Of course the memory sizes and types of MP3 players have skyrocketed in the intervening years (again, Apple raised the bar early on and still dominates to this day), but it’s just so cool to know that all the tunes I want are really only an earbud away. Any time, anywhere.
— – —
All in all, a great decade for tech that makes life more interesting and, well, more fun. Here’s to 2020 and what we’ll take for granted in those future days!

WinMo No Mo

After a long run with Windows Mobile, I am done and done. It took a fair amount of deliberation, but I decided to go the Apple fanboy route and get an iPhone 3GS… and I can hardly begin to put in words how absolutely glad I am that I switched! For the past several months I have been able to play with the iPhone a little here and there, as several people I know have the phones and were more than happy to demonstrate all the things the phone does so quickly and so beautifully. And that’s what finally won me over… just how easy and intuitive it is to work with this thing! It really IS like a breath of fresh air in using a smart phone, not having to worry about using a stylus or fingernail (my long-time method of screen operations) for selecting an arrow or a micro “OK” or “X” button on the screen or even hitting the hardware Back button. No having to navigate through a Start menu or Programs list, all apps are just a swipe or two away. And one button to get back to the main springboard screen. Easy! While I can’t say it is a perfect phone, this is as close to one that I’ve ever had.

This ease-of-use comes down to probably the biggest transition for me, switching from a 320×240 resistive screen to a phone with a 480×320 capacitive screen. This is what takes you from a stylus to a finger touch. It’s so liberating and intuitive to use finger gestures to work my way around the iPhone’s springboard interface and also inside the applications. This is really what separates the “old-school” phones with the next generation ones. The future does NOT include a stylus! As a quick fer instance, to make a phone call is as easy as a swipe and a few finger taps. My old phone required about twice that many operations, especially if I was calling someone not in my main contacts page or speed dial list. And absolutely forget trying to do all that one-handed! The larger screen also has more real estate for web pages, emails, ebooks, etc., and the denser pixel count also looks better overall.

One if my hesitations with going iPhone was the lack of a physical keyboard, like I’ve had on my last two WinMo phones. But I have found, to my amazement and pleasure, that the on-screen keyboard is easier to use and I’m faster and more accurate using it even with the one finger, hunt-n-peck method than I was with my old phone’s keyboard! Even in portrait mode, it is quite usable… and being able to rotate the phone and have the screen automatically rotate to the larger keyboard is SO SO welcome in my world. There was just something about having to slide out my old phone’s keyboard and wait that second or two for the screen to rotate that just got to be so annoying. My old phone was also continuously popping up the onscreen keyboard in portrait mode when it thought I needed to do some text input. Again, annoying, because then I’d have click on that infuriatingly small keyboard button at the bottom of the screen to make it go away. Good riddance!!

Apps… need I say more? There are now over 100,000 available for the iPhone. I know I won’t even use a fraction of that, but having such a choice is awesome. As they say, there really IS an app for that. On the WinMo side, let’s see… oh, they just launched the Windows Mobile “app store” which is clunky and most developers don’t like. Ah, and you have to have a WinMo 6.5 phone to use it (oh I forgot they “back-ported” it to 6.1 too now, win!). Wow, now that’s a compelling reason to upgrade. But let’s talk about the CAB file method of installing software. It’s not bad, but there were many times I would click on a link in PocketIE to download and install a CAB file, and the stupid browser would start loading the file like it was a web page! Lots of binary code! Ok, so it’s finally downloaded, so you open it, Do you want to install this? It hasn’t been signed! Where do you want to install it? Oh, your phone RAM is getting low, better install to the SD card, but wait, the developer says it’s more stable if it’s installed in the phone’s RAM… blah blah blah.

Install an iPhone app: tap tap done. Backed up in iTunes.

But, how can I like a phone that’s so locked down? Simple, I did a jailbreak on it. The first jailbreak for the 3GS was released not long ago (I got my phone like only a week before… good timing!) and it opens the world for setting up your iPhone for how YOU want it to look. My personal favorite is the ability to show email, sms, and calendar info on the lock screen, so at a glance you can see what’s going on and what you need to check. Of course there are gobs of themes out there to let you deck out and “decorate” your phone, but I like to keep it simple. What’s really great is that this is in addition to using the Apple app store, it just adds on other software sources. The downside is that it voids your warranty… but I’m willing to risk it.

And battery life… I was worried that even going with the iPhone I’d only get about a day’s worth of juice on an overnight charge (this preconception came after talking with my iPhone compadres). That’s what my old phone was doing, even with push email turned off and no wifi or gps running. Well, to its credit, that phone was approaching two years of continuous use on the original battery, but even in its prime it still HAD to have a nightly charge. The iPhone, on the other hand, is doing excellent with battery life! I can easily go two full days of average use and still be rockin’ at 25-30% charge. I know it’s fresh and new and these batteries fall off over time, but I’m really happy with it right now.

One other tipping point was the fact that Microsoft is only just now starting to come out with phones running WinMo 6.5, and are planning v7 late next year. There was nothing in 6.5 to make me want to upgrade (from 6.1) just to have it, and v7 is sounding like it’s where the first iPhone was back in 2007. (As a quick aside, most WinMo phones are NOT fully upgradable… my old phone only went from v5.0 originally to 6.0 to 6.1, no chance of 6.5 working on it. The iPhone? Even the most recent release can install on a Gen 1!) (Another aside… there are 6.5 ROMs that DO work on my old phone, but they are FAR from official.) I had a previous post here on the blog about the first capacitive screen WinMo phone, the HD2, coming out early next year. It does look intriguing and the size and resolution of that screen looks absolutely gorgeous, but it only shines because HTC put their own interface over the default WinMo apps. (Also looks like only T-Mobile will carry it, bummer.) There are the same, old, boring, crappy applications, especially for mail. My other strong leaning was the HTC TouchPro2 which is out now, but you know, after watching several videos of people using it and seeing how the good stuff was still tied to the HTC TouchFlo3D interface (which I’ve never been fond of), it just wasn’t enough.

So, guess I just have to say, sorry, Windows Mobile. We had a lot of fun and Microsoft could have taken you to such heights. It’s too bad they didn’t make you a priority years ago, especially when Apple first dropped the iPhone bomb. They have the money, developers, talent, (shrinking) market share, EVERYthing they need, but no vision. Now, even when there are inklings that they’ve finally seen the light, it is too little and much too late. Of course, I’ll keep watch on the WinMo world to see how it develops, but since the iPhone feels like a new and liberated world for me, I can’t see ever going back. I’m quite content and happy with that.

Remember this mantra, Microsoft: It – Just – Works.

[2009.12.01 addition: Just came across this post [http://www.mobilitysite.com/2009/12/droid-iphone-or-hd2-which-would-i-choose/] from Chris Leckness on MobilitySite.com, he compares the iPhone 3Gs, HTC HD2, and Droid… and basically sums up a lot of what I’m thinking. iPhone is still the best.]

Dilemma

The HTC Leo / HD2 looks terribly awesome, but no hints yet on when it will (if ever) come to the US. AT&T will have this little beaut, the Tilt2, available this month. So tempting.

WinMo goodness…

The hotness…

“The HD2 is confirmed as having a 480×800 WVGA screen and a slim 11mm shell. It’s powered by a hugely powerful 1Ghz Snapdragon CPU. The HD2 also has 448MB RAM, 512MB ROM, WiFi, Bluetooth 2.1 with EDR and A2DP, 5 megapixel camera with dual LED flash, G-sensor, compass, GPS, 3.5mm audio jack and a microSD expansion.”

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/coolsmartphone/huIR/~3/PoEOPbxn43w/news5139.html

Photo from SlashGear